Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12.
The only Survivor losers from Week 5 are those who overthought it, with about 10 percent of people choosing Buffalo or Washington. The almost 80 percent of participants that took our advice with Miami, Detroit or Cincinnati skated through to Week 7. A few adrenaline junkies even made it work with the Jets, which just goes to show that lack of defense wins survivor pools. It’s official: Denver is the new Houston.
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Only a minority of participants can take advantage of the Broncos, but please do if you’re one of them. These were the highest percentage of rostered teams through Week 5: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami. Though we won’t write up these elite picks anymore, you may still have them available in your pool. It’s also a great week to use Buffalo versus the Giants or Miami versus the Panthers if you saved them. Buffalo is coming off a loss against a team that has scored the second-fewest points per game, but allowed the fourth-most points per game is as close to a guaranteed win as I can give.
Week 6 Survivor Strategy
Renee Miller: This week brings another slew of games with very narrow spreads. Only Kansas City, Miami and Buffalo stand out as double-digit favorites. A few teams to highlight as road favorites include Philadelphia (at Jets), Minnesota (at Bears), Baltimore (vs. Titans in London), Detroit (at Buccaneers), San Francisco (at Browns) and Dallas (at Chargers). Among these, the Vikings and Dallas could be trap games. The Bears have recently gotten hot, and it’s not a stretch to think they can continue vs. a Minnesota team that allows an average of 24.4 points per game (10th most). Dallas is a wild card — I could see this game going either way. I’m tempted by the Chargers here, actually, but there are two upcoming games that I’m saving them for (Chicago in Week 8 or NY Jets in Week 9). Picking Dallas is unnecessarily risky against a home Chargers team coming off the bye and boasting one of the best point differentials in the league.
The home favorites include Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Atlanta and the LA Rams. Ideally, this is the pool to draw from, as they are likely to be less popular than the elite teams while still providing the security of home field and a Vegas backing.
Adam Gretz: I thought about taking Dallas this week, but I agree with Renee that it seems like a huge risk because I honestly don’t know what to make of the Cowboys right now. Sunday’s game was the first time this season they faced a team that should legitimately be considered a top-tier playoff contender and they got embarrassed on both sides of the ball. I also think it created some questions about how good that defense is given the uninspiring list of quarterbacks they played over the first four weeks. The Chargers may find ways to lose games in ridiculous ways, but the Cowboys also have that vibe. The only thing I am confident in picking with that game is somebody will lose in a devastatingly crushing way. It is simply the DNA of both teams. I would save them until I see how they play against another top-tier quarterback. Cincinnati seems like a good home favorite if they are back on track, but like Dallas, I need to see a little more from them before I want to buy in. Did they play better last week because they are back on track, or did they play better because they played Arizona? Seattle is too good of a team to take that chance against. Given the rest of the matchups this week, my strategy is to go more for who I think is destined to lose than who is a clear favorite to win.
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Week 6 Survivor Chalk Picks
Pick projections from SurvivorGrid. Lines from BetMGM.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
vs. NY Giants | 35.5% | -15 | |
vs. Carolina | 26.1% | -14 | |
vs. Arizona | 13.7% | -6 | |
vs. Denver | 9.6% | -10.5 | |
vs. NY Jets | 8.9% | -7 |
Renee Miller: Cincinnati Bengals over Seattle Seahawks
Adam was smart to highlight the Bengals as a contrarian pick last week as they finally seemed to put the pieces together (read: put the ball in Ja’Marr Chase’s hands) to beat the Cardinals in Arizona. Chase enjoyed catching 15 of his 19 targets, including three for touchdowns. Joe Mixon nearly had a monster day as well. You might say that Arizona’s (lack of) defense deserves the credit, but heading into Week 5 they weren’t even in the Top 10 of WR matchups.
This week, the Bengals are home, hosting a West Coast team in the early window, which can be disruptive to the visiting team. The Bengals have won two of their last three games, and defense has been a big part of that. They’ve notched 12 QB sacks, five interceptions, and one fumble recovery in that span. I’m not going to sugar-coat it, Cincy’s defense will have to continue to come up strong in this one.
On the offensive side, there’s no denying Joe Burrow and Chase’s rocky start. But this is a team we know. They’re returning an almost entirely intact key personnel group from their Super Bowl (2022) and AFC Conference Championship (2023) playoff runs. The season’s first four games were the aberration, not the fifth. Burrow’s leg may have been the issue. We have more evidence now that the defenses of Cleveland, Baltimore and even Tennessee are legit. I’m ready to trust that the issues are resolved and the team will function much more like we all expected in August, and like we saw in Week 5.
The Seahawks have allowed opponents the most average offensive plays per game (72.8), and their game logs include the Week 4 demolition of the NY Giants, when they sacked Daniel Jones 11 times. They rate as the overall fifth-best matchup for fantasy, a good indicator of offensive success. If you’ve used up the elite teams like KC, BUF and MIA, take a shot with the Bengals, who were predicted to be — and have the talent to be — right up there with them.
Adam Gretz: Los Angeles Rams over Arizona Cardinals
I love everything about the way the Arizona Cardinals have played this season. They seem to play harder than anybody every week, give every heavily favorite opponent all they can handle, and Joshua Dobbs has probably exceeded all expectations that anybody could have had for him in taking over the starting spot while Kyler Murray is sidelined.
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But they still aren’t very good. The talent just isn’t there, and as well as Dobbs has played this season, he showed this past week against Cincinnati that teams might be starting to get on to him and can force him into some mistakes.
With all of the big heavy favorites (Miami, Kansas City, San Francisco, Buffalo) off the table for us this week, not many high-percentage options are still floating out there. While the Rams are far from one of the league’s elite teams and maybe not one you want to look at as a safe pick, they do have the bigger impact talent on the field in this game.
They have the best quarterback in Matthew Stafford, they have the best wide receiver (two of them, actually, now that Cooper Kupp is back joining standout rookie Puka Nacua) and they have the best all-around player in Aaron Donald.
Additionally, they have one of the league’s best head coaches in Sean McVay, going up against a rookie head coach in Jonathan Gannon. The Rams are favored by more than a touchdown and if your strategy has been to bet against the Cardinals this season because they are one of the worst teams on paper, there is no need to stop doing that this week.
Week 6 Survivor C0ntrarian Picks
Renee Miller: Atlanta Falcons over Washington Commanders
Atlanta has had some close scrapes this season, including Week 5’s last-minute victory over Houston. Fortunately for them, Desmond Ridder has been at his best in these games, but it will still be a nail-biter if you roll with Atlanta. They are currently just minus-2.5 point favorites, sitting 3-2, having faced a fairly nondescript collection of teams. They are one of the more average all-around teams this season. The good news is that Washington is below average defensively, allowing opponents the second-most points per game this year.
The woes extend to the offensive line, which has allowed Sam Howell to be sacked an average of 5.8 times per game, just a tad lower than the Giants. After starting the season with wins against Arizona and Denver, Washington lost a close one to Philly, got blown out by Buffalo and was embarrassed by Chicago in Week 5. Things are deteriorating in Washington.
Meanwhile, Atlanta seems to be figuring out the positionless balance that could work for them. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are getting many opportunities, but we’ve seen an important uptick in Ridder’s success in targeting Drake London, Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts over the last two games. With the Commanders being especially susceptible to the pass game, this element of the offense will make or break this pick. It’s certainly not without risk, but it is a sneaky time to use Atlanta. If not this week, probably never.
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Adam Gretz: Las Vegas Raiders over New England Patriots
There is almost no possible way this game can end any dumber than last year’s game between these two teams did (the last-second Patriots lateral in a tie game that turned into a walk-off Raiders defensive touchdown), but given the way the Patriots are playing this season I would not put it past them.
And that is really what this pick is all about.
This is not a contrarian pick because I love the Raiders in this matchup.
This is a contrarian pick because I have zero faith in the New England Patriots.
They have been outscored 72-3 over the past two weeks, while the offense has steadily decreased its point total every week, going from 20, to 17, to 15, to three, to zero. The only good news is there is no way they can score negative points this week, but I wouldn’t put it past them.
Matt Patricia took all of the heat for the Patriots’ offense regressing last season (much of that heat was deserved, by the way) but it is becoming increasingly clear that for all of the accomplishments coach Bill Belichick has had in the NFL he just has not adapted to life in the league without Tom Brady.
The Raiders are by no means great, but I like Jimmy Garopollo more than Mac Jones, I like Devante Adams better than any wide receiver New England has, and with the Patriots defense being decimated by major injuries to Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon, as well as the offense being in the state that it is in, this seems like a situation where the team shouldn’t be expected to beat anybody.
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Norm Hall/Getty Images)
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